Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
WR DEBATE: TYREEK HILL vs. DAVANTE ADAMS 2021
WR DEBATE: TYREEK HILL VS DAVANTE ADAMS
This article pins two of the top WR’s up against each other… Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs and Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers. Which of these players should come off the board first in 2021? Let’s find out!
RECEPTIONS AND YARDAGE
The Kansas City Chiefs are near the top of the list of teams in the NFL that pass the ball, but Tyreek Hill makes his money for his ability to make big plays. Over the past four seasons he has averaged over 15 yards per catch but he has failed to make 100 catches in any of those seasons.
Davante Adams also makes big plays, yet his yards/catch over the past four seasons sits at 12, but Adams takes on a lot more volume than Hill as he as topped 100 catches in two of the last three seasons and was on his way there in 2019 but only played 12 games (He was on pace for 110 catches in 2019).
Davante Adams has another advantage in this area and that he is clearly the #1 receiving option for the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers is able to get him the ball in any situation while the go-to guy for the Chiefs is actually Travis Kelce. Hill would be the second option in the passing game but still a big-play guy.
Advantage: Davante Adams
RUNNING THE BALL
In seven seasons with the Packers Davante Adams has never been involved in a rushing play… EVER! This is where Tyreek Hill closes the gap on production in this comparison. Last season alone, Tyreek Hill generated 24 points in the running game. Hill was able to produce 21 points in this area as well in 2018 but came away with less than 10 points in 2017 and 2019.
Advantage: Tyreek Hill
SCORING
Last season Davante Adams scored 18 touchdowns, and since 2016 he and Aaron Rodgers have connected on 58 touchdowns, and 36 of those have come over the last three seasons. Had Adams not have missed time in 2020, he would have had 20 receiving touchdowns.
Tyreek Hill scored 17 touchdowns last season (15 receiving and 2 rushing). Hill has averaged over 10 touchdowns a season for his career and has averaged over 12 touchdowns a season over the past three.
Advantage: This one is close, but the advantage goes to Davante Adams.
PROJECTIONS
A full slate of games for Davante Adams this season should amount to:
Targets: 170
Catches: 115
Yards: 1,440
TDs: 14
A full slate of games for Tyreek Hill this season should total:
Targets: 130
Catches: 85
Yards: 1,350
TDs: 12
Rushing yards: 100
Rushing TDs: 1
In PPR leagues, Adams wins by a landslide, but it is a much closer call in standard leagues. Ultimately the superior pick in either format is Davante Adams. Pick him without thinking twice.
Order your fantasy football draft boards at commishkit.com
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards are Out Now!
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
QB DEBATE: AARON ROGERS vs. PATRICK MAHOMES 2021
QB DEBATE: WHO IS THE #1 QB FOR 2021?
By: John Falabella
Now that all of the Aaron Rodgers commotions have settled down, we can get down to business to see which QB will be in line to be the top performer for the 2021 season. If you were unaware, there were some rumors that Aaron Rodgers wanted to be traded and would retire if he was not. However, those ideas have gone to bed over the past couple of weeks, and Aaron Rodgers has reported to camp and is now looking to have another great season in Green Bay. Last season Aaron Rodgers led the NFL in completion percentage (70%) and threw a career-high 48 touchdown passes, which also led the NFL.
The other contender for the number one QB off the board this season is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes fell short of matching Rodgers in those statistical areas last season, as he completed only 66% of his passes and threw 38 touchdown passes, but who is the better bet to finish on top in 2021?
Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 14th season as the starter in Green Bay and his third season under head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers has proven each year of his career that he is going to throw a bunch of touchdowns, and he is not going to turn the ball over. We will see more of that in 2021.
Patrick Mahomes is only entering his 4th season as the starter in Kansas City, but he has been putting up big numbers in Andy Reid‘s system since day one. Comparing Mahomes first three years as a starter to Rodgers and the totals are not even close. Mahomes has already thrown 114 touchdown passes while Rodgers tossed only 87 during that span of his career. Obviously, we will see big numbers from the Kansas City quarterback again in 2021.
In order to decide which of these stars will have a better year, we will have to look at the players who surround these two quarterbacks.
GREEN BAY PACKERS OFFENSE
One of the best fantasy football quarterbacks of all time, Aaron Rodgers, will be paired with the best receiver in the NFL, Davante Adams. Adams led the NFL in receiving touchdowns last year with 18 and would have led the NFL in receiving yards but missed two games due to injury. Green Bay has some good receiving options after Adams, but there is a considerable drop-off. Last season we saw the emergence of tight end Robert Tonyan, who was an excellent red zone threat with 11 touchdown receptions. Rookie Amari Rodgers will play a role, as will Randall Cobb, who has returned to the Packers after two seasons away. Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling will also be in the mix, but they will need to hold on to the ball as they had a combined 12 dropped passes last season in 108 targets (that’s over 11% of the passes thrown their way). The Packer running game also plays a massive factor as Aaron Rodgers is a master of the play-action pass. Running back, Aaron Jones has proven to be a dependable runner over the past three seasons and can also come out of the backfield as a receiver. Jones may need to pick up the slack in this area since Jamaal Williams is no longer with the team.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS OFFENSE
The Chiefs have weapons across the board for Patrick Mahomes to utilize. Speedster Tyreek Hill has consistently put up 1000 yards with double-digit touchdowns over the past few seasons, and those numbers should be expected again in 2021. Travis Kelce, the best TE in the game, will be elite as usual, producing in the range of 1300 yards and 10 TDs. Demarcus Robinson is an acceptable 4th option, and the electric Mecole Hardman is capable of putting up big numbers, but he dropped 8 passes out of 64 targets last season. Byron Pringle will also need to step up to help replace Sammy Watkins, who left via free agency this past summer. Second-year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have a prominent role coming out of the backfield. He had 54 targets in that area last year as a rookie. The Chiefs have also bolstered their offensive line after a poor performance in the Super Bowl.
Advantage: Patrick Mahomes
MOBILITY
Another factor that will separate these two quarterbacks is their mobility. Aaron Rodgers will be turning 38 in December, so he will naturally be slowing down in this area, although he can still scramble for a first down here and there. Look for Rodgers to gain about 120 yards and a touchdown on the ground this season.
In September, Patrick Mahomes will turn 26 and hasn’t even entered his prime (even though he plays like he has). His rushing numbers dipped a bit in 2019 due to a knee injury, but he is good for about 300 yards and two touchdowns as a runner every year.
Advantage: Patrick Mahomes
SYSTEM
The final factor that we will look at is the systems that these two quarterbacks play in. As I mentioned earlier, this will be Aaron Rodgers‘s third year working with Matt LaFleur in Green Bay. Over those two seasons, the Packers finished 13-3 each year while the team has passed the ball about 56% of the time. Assuming the Packers will be an elite team again this year, I would look for those numbers to drop just a bit due to the age of Rodgers as well as the fact that he threw so many touchdowns passes last season. Aaron Jones had 20 rushing touchdowns in 2019 and only 9 in 2020. I anticipate his rushing touchdowns to increase (AJ Dillon‘s as well), which will take points away from Aaron Rodgers this season.
Since 2018 Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have thrown the ball on 61% of their offensive possessions. This has been a staple of Andy Reid‘s coaching style going back to his days in Philadelphia. Reid loves to call for short passing plays in lieu of rushing attempts which only boosts Mahomes value and point potential. Even Alex Smith threw the ball 57% of the time during his time as quarterback of the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been Super Bowl contenders the past two years and made it to the big game each season, so there is no need to change this winning formula now.
Advantage: Patrick Mahomes
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly have a great season in 2021, but the first quarterback that should come off the board this season should be Patrick Mahomes due to the superior weapons around him, his mobility, and the system he plays in.
Order a paper or corrugated fantasy football draft board from commishkit.com.
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards are Out Now!
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
TE DEBATE: DARREN WALLER vs. GEORGE KITTLE 2021
TE DEBATE: DARREN WALLER vs. GEORGE KITTLE
By John Falabella
This article will debate who the better TE pick is this season: George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers or Darren Waller of the Las Vegas Raiders. I am sure we all know that Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs is the #1 TE in all of football and should be the first TE off the board in your fantasy draft, but who should be the second?
Darren Waller is coming off consecutive one-thousand-yard seasons and has become the number one receiver in Las Vegas. George Kittle had similar seasons in 2018 and 2019 but was limited to eight games in 2020.
GEORGE KITTLE
George Kittle had his best season in 2018 when he went for 1,377 yards on 88 catches and 5 touchdowns. But will he ever be able to match these numbers?
Kittle followed up his best season in 2018 by gaining 1,053 yards on 85 catches and 5 touchdowns over 14 games in 2019. His catch total was almost identical to his best season, but his production’s big difference came from his yard/catch. In 2018 he averages 15.6 yards per catch, while in 2019, that number dropped to 12.4. Kittle emerged as the number one option for the 49ers in 2018, and he proved he could do the job. This warranted extra attention in 2019 and led to his drop in yardage.
The 49ers Tight End also played only 14 games in 2019 but had he played 16 games, he was on pace for:
96 catches – 1203 yards – 6 TDs
Kittle’s breakout season in 2018 led to 167 fantasy points, and his full-season projections for 2019 would have put him at 156, so he was close to matching his 2018 production.
In 2020 Kittle faced more injuries and only played half the season (8 games). If we project those numbers over 16 games, he would have had:
96 catches – 1268 yards – 4 TDs
These numbers would have earned him 150 points in 2020, which would have once again put him close to matching those 2018 numbers… but remember, these are projections due to missing games for injury.
DARREN WALLER
Darren Waller had a great season in 2019 when he went for 1,145 yards on 90 catches and 3 touchdowns. He was by far the most productive receiver on the Raiders in 2019 and took that label into 2020.
When George Kittle emerged as the #1 option for the 49ers, his numbers went down. Would Darren Waller‘s numbers do the same?
Waller followed up his 2019 season with 1,196 yards on 107 catches and 9 touchdowns. Like Kittle, Waller‘s yards/catch numbers also fell from 12.7 to 11.2, but the rest of his numbers went up.
Waller’s 2019 season totaled 141 fantasy points, while his 2020 season totaled 173. (Travis Kelce had 207 in 2020).
49ERS
George Kittle will enter this season as the #1 receiver once again for the 49ers, but with the presence of wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, his number of opportunities may decrease. Like Kittle, both of these receivers missed time in 2020.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has returned to health and should be under center for most of the season, but first-round pick, Trey Lance, will be looming in the background should Garoppolo not produce or get injured (again). Garoppolo has great chemistry with Kittle, but will he have that same connection with Trey Lance?
Finally, the 49ers have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and are set to be a power again in 2021. This means they will be winning games, and when the 49ers win, they run the ball. In 2019, when the 49ers advanced all the way to the Super Bowl, the 49ers ran the ball over 51% of the time, and we may see that recipe again in 2021, which would, once again, lead to less opportunity for Kittle.
RAIDERS
Darren Waller will enter this season as the #1 receiver once again for the Raiders, but they only have Henry Ruggs, John Brown, Willie Snead, Bryan Edwards, and Kenyan Drake in the passing game. While these are adequate supplemental players for the Raiders, there is a lack of top options to go to besides Waller, and he has already proven he can produce when given extra attention from the defense.
Durable quarterback Derek Carr loves to throw to Waller and will continue to do so, but the Raiders also have Marcus Mariota should Carr get injured or falter. In Mariota’s only game action of last season, Waller went for 150 yards and a touchdown.
Finally, the Raiders have not been very good in years and will most likely be an average team again in 2021. This means that the Raiders will be throwing more than they run it (The Raiders threw the ball 54% of the time in each of the last two seasons), giving Waller even more of an opportunity to shine.
THE DECISION:
I would love to have George Kittle on my fantasy football team in 2021, but if it is time to pick a TE and both of these players are on the board, I would choose Darren Waller without hesitation.
Order your fantasy football draft boards from commishkit.com
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards are Coming Soon!
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
RB DEBATE: DERRICK HENRY VS DALVIN COOK 2021
RB DEBATE: DERRICK HENRY VS DALVIN COOK
By John Falabella
Two of the marquee running backs entering the 2021 NFL season are Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans, coming off a 2000 yard rushing season, and Dalvin Cook from the Minnesota Vikings, who was not far behind Henry in terms of production in 2020. Many feel that Christian McCaffrey should be the first running back off the board in 2021, so the question is: Head to head… Which of these two running backs should be drafted next in 2021?
SCORING
Of course, in fantasy football, the main objective is to score points. What better way to do that than by drafting a player who scores a lot of touchdowns. Derrick Henry has scored double-digit touchdowns the past three seasons, including 17 in 2020, and has scored 35 over the past two. Dalvin Cook also scored 17 touchdowns in 2020 and has scored 30 times the past two years. In terms of scoring, these guys are neck in neck, but Derrick Henry wins by a nose in this category.
Advantage: Derrick Henry
CATCHING THE BALL
Many teams have running backs who they hand the ball to, and when they are down, that player comes out for a back that can catch the ball a little better. The Titans have been pretty good the past two years, so playing from behind has not been something that they have had to deal with much, but Derrick Henry has never caught more than 19 balls in a season (and only has 76 catches over his first five years in the pros). Dalvin Cook, on the other hand, has caught over 40 balls out of the backfield the past three seasons, and in 2019 he had over 50 catches for over 500 yards. Dalvin Cook is clearly the better pass catcher.
Advantage: Dalvin Cook
RUNNING THE BALL
Dalvin Cook has averaged 4.8 yards/carry for his career and was up to 5 yards per/carry in 2020. Great numbers….however, Derrick Henry has increased his average from 4.9 in 2018, to 5.1 in 2019 and up to 5.4 in 2020. They are both tough runners, but Derrick Henry has proven that he has only gotten stronger with age.
Advantage: Derrick Henry
TOUCHES
Touches also play a big part in who will be the better fantasy performer each season. Derrick Henry ran the ball a league-leading 378 times last season and has gone over 300 carries the past two seasons. The amazing part is that the Titans have evolved a bit over Coach Mike Vrabel’s three years in Tennessee. His first two seasons the Titans played a very slow pace totaling less than 900 total plays from scrimmage in 2018 and 2019. In 2020 they ramped it up and ran over 1000 plays. Derrick Henry reaped the benefits of this as he got extra carries, extra yardage and ran that all the way to his 2000 yard season.
Dalvin Cook also had over 300 carries (312 to be precise) in 2020, all while missing two games to injury. Had Cook played a full slate, he could have also reached 370 total touches last season, but missing games has been a big problem for Cook his entire professional career. So far, Cook has missed a total of 21 games in his four professional seasons. Derrick Henry has only missed two games his entire career.
With that said, they are both going to touch the ball a ton in 2021. Now while the Titans have typically run the ball over 50% of the time during Mike Vrabel’s tenure as coach, they have to keep the young A.J. Brown happy, as well as veteran receiver newcomer Julio Jones. This could cause a shift in the Titan‘s play calling.
When the Vikings are good, they are going to run the ball a lot, and when the Vikings are bad (or average), they are going to throw it a ton. Last year, we saw the emergence of WR Justin Jefferson, and while the Vikings finished 7-9, they still ran the ball 48% of the time. I expect the Vikings to be better in 2021, but even if they are not, the catching ability of Cook keeps him on the field even when they are down.
Advantage: Dalvin Cook
THE X FACTOR
Derrick Henry ran for 2000 yards in 2020, so, of course, you should want to draft him… right? Well, maybe not. Prior to Henry, seven other running backs have rushed for 2000 yards in a season. So how did these running backs do the following season?
Season |
Attempts |
Yards |
YPC |
YPG |
1973 (year 5) |
332 |
2003 |
6.0 |
143.1 |
1974 (year 6) |
270 |
1125 |
4.2 |
80.4 |
Drop off |
-62 |
-878 |
-1.8 |
-62.7 |
Season |
Attempts |
Yards |
YPC |
YPG |
1997 (year 9) |
335 |
2053 |
6.1 |
128.3 |
1998 (year 10) |
343 |
1491 |
4.3 |
93.2 |
Drop off |
+8 |
-562 |
-1.8 |
-25.1 |
ERIC DICKERSON – LOS ANGELES RAMS
Season |
Attempts |
Yards |
YPC |
YPG |
1984 (year 2) |
379 |
2105 |
5.6 |
131.6 |
1985 (year 3) |
292 |
1234 |
4.2 |
88.1 |
Drop off |
-87 |
-871 |
-1.4 |
-43.5 |
JAMAL LEWIS – BALTIMORE RAVENS
Season |
Attempts |
Yards |
YPC |
YPG |
2003 (year 4) |
387 |
2066 |
5.3 |
129.1 |
2004 (year 5) |
235 |
1006 |
4.3 |
83.8 |
Drop off |
-152 |
-1060 |
-1.0 |
-45.3 |
CHRIS JOHNSON – TENNESSEE TITANS
Season |
Attempts |
Yards |
YPC |
YPG |
2009 (year 2) |
358 |
2006 |
5.6 |
125.4 |
2010 (year 3) |
316 |
1364 |
4.3 |
85.3 |
Drop Off |
-42 |
-642 |
-1.3 |
-40.1 |
ADRIAN PETERSON – MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Season |
Attempts |
Yards |
YPC |
YPG |
2012 (year 6) |
348 |
2097 |
6.0 |
131.1 |
2013 (year 7) |
279 |
1266 |
4.5 |
90.4 |
Drop off |
-69 |
-831 |
-1.5 |
-30.7 |
TERRELL DAVIS – DENVER BRONCOS
Season |
Attempts |
Yards |
YPC |
YPG |
1998 (year 4) |
392 |
2008 |
5.1 |
125.5 |
1999 (year 5) |
67 |
211 |
3.1 |
52.8 |
Drop off |
-325 |
-1797 |
-2.0 |
-72.7 |
*All stats verified on Pro-Football Reference
(Terrell Davis’s career was essentially over after that 2000 yard season. Of course, it did not help that they played in back-to-back Super Bowls, and it also didn’t help that John Elway retired, but Terrell Davis was never the same after the 1998 season.)
Looking at the numbers, no running back, after posting a 2000 yard season, ever came close to matching their numbers from the previous season and all of them had extreme drop-offs. Even after removing Terrell Davis from the equation, the other six backs gained over 800 fewer yards the season after rushing for 2000.
I am sure Derrick Henry will have a solid season in 2021, but after leading the NFL in rushing attempts and yardage over the past two seasons, the only place he can go is down.
Advantage: Dalvin Cook (Less wear and tear)
FINAL THOUGHTS
Derrick Henry has to deal with the ghosts of 2000 yard runners before him, opponents will be gearing up to stop him, and the addition of WR Julio Jones as well as a new offensive coordinator (Todd Downing – Arthur Smith moved on to the Atlanta Falcons) says that the Titans are going to be passing a bit more in 2021.
Dalvin Cook is younger, on the rise, will see tons of touches as the primary focus of the Vikings offense, and is on a team that has not changed much from last season. If I had to pick between these two players, I would choose Dalvin Cook with confidence.
Fantasy Football Season is Here! Order your draft boards from commishkit.com
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards are Coming Soon!
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
The Phone Call That Got Julio Jones Traded
THE PHONE CALL THAT GOT JULIO JONES TRADED
How did we get here? Shannon Sharpe called Julio Jones on the live TV show Undisputed and asked him, straight up, if he wanted to stay in Atlanta. Jones quickly responded, “No, I’m outta there.” Julio probably didn’t know he was on the air. The Falcons and the NFL were like, WTF?
Jones requested a trade a few months ago, according to NFL Network’s Insider Ian Rapoport. The Falcons wanted a first-round pick for Jones. Instead, they settled for a second and fourth-round pick. He would have been perfect in Kansas City with Tyreek Hill on the other side or in Green Bay with DaVante Adams. Aaron Rodgers would have probably quit bitching and got back in camp. But what do I know? I’m just a fantasy football expert.
When it comes to fantasy football stats, Julio is consistent. He’s always drafted as a WR1. Since 2011 Jones has 848 receptions for 12,896 yards and 60 touchdowns. I had Matt Ryan come off the bench last year after my original starter, Drew Brees, got hurt. It felt like Julio was on my team at times, even if it was only for nine games.
I think the Falcons are going to be okay. Scoring points was not their problem last year. Matty Ice played seven games without Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley will replace his old Alabama alum as the new WR1. Russell Gage will now be WR2, and they drafted the best tight end coming out of college Kyle Pitts. I have no problem taking any Atlanta Falcons on draft day.
The Titan’s offense won’t miss a beat. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is being drafted as a QB1 even with wide receiver Corey Davis leaving in free agency to the New York Jets and tight end Jonnu Smith going to the New England Patriots. Julio is an upgrade over Davis, and teaming him up with A.J. Brown will be fun to watch. Running back Derrick Henry is still a beast. Last year he led the NFL in attempts with 378. He also led the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing yards per game. I had King Henry on my squad last season, and if I get a chance to redraft him this year, I will.
-The Commish Kit
Don’t forget to order your Fantasy Football Draft Boards from commishkit.com. They are now shipping.
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget to order your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards! They are now shipping.
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
The Impact Of The 17th Game (18 Weeks NFL Season)
The Impact of the 17th Game (18 weeks NFL Season)
By John Falabella
As we enter the 2021 NFL season, we will see a significant change to the schedule as a full NFL season will now consist of 17 games. Dating back to 1978, a full NFL season was 16 games (except for a couple strike-shortened seasons), and that is what most people, including players, have become accustomed to. So let’s take a look at how this extra game will impact the NFL as a whole and how it will affect you as a Fantasy Football player.
NFL IMPACT
First of all, I think that 16 games are enough games for any team to play. Football, as we all know, is a violent sport. Over the past few seasons, “safety” has been a point of emphasis throughout the league… personally, I feel that adding extra games is a contradiction to those safety measures. The natural wear and tear of playing the game of football will most likely lead to a couple of things:
1. Shorter careers
2. Load Management
SHORTER CAREERS
They say that a typical lifespan for an elite NFL running back is 7 to 9 seasons. Some players break this mold (Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, etc.), but it is about year 7- 9 that most RB’s numbers drastically change because of the beating they have taken over their careers. I realize that they have only added one game, but this one game could make a big difference. One other note, the NFL removed the bye week for the #2 seed in the playoffs, so for a couple of teams, they will be playing another game that was added in 2020.
LOAD MANAGEMENT
I believe Sir Isaac Newton said, “with every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction”… well, with the NFL adding games (Action), what will be the opposite reaction?
Since the NFL added games without adding any rest, or bye weeks, that means that teams will have to compensate for this additional wear and tear that I mentioned. A phrase that is uttered and hated in the NBA is “LOAD MANAGEMENT.” This is where a player will sit out to rest even though they can play. If they are hurt with a playable injury, they are more likely to sit with this extra game added. If an NFL RB’s lifespan is 7- 9 seasons, why would a player want to reduce his career by taking a full workload for 17 games or more? It is more likely now that a player will sit out, also known as, Load Management. I would imagine that this would happen quite frequently when a team plays on Sunday and then again on Thursday. With the institution of the Running back by committee (RBBC) teams are already set up to deal with this type of situation and this will also give fantasy owners another thing to worry about.
Another impact of the 17th game will be that sacred records will now be broken. Babe Ruth set a record for home runs in a season with 60 while playing a 154 game season in Baseball. In 1961 baseball expanded to a 162 game season, and Roger Maris hit 61 homers, breaking Babe Ruth’s record.
Now that the NFL has expanded to 17 games, this will allow a more significant opportunity for players to break many NFL records.
I think that the RBBC will be the way many teams go to protect their most valuable running backs but let’s pretend that a running back is used as a “Bell Cow” over a 17 game season… we will see more 2000 yards rushers! Over the history of the NFL, there have only been eight 2000 yard rushers. The first was O.J. Simpson in 1973, where he used his elusive skills during a 14 game season to gain 2000 yards. The others to accomplish this feat were: Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Terrell Davis, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and last season Derrick Henry. With the extra game, a Bell Cow back would now need to average 118 yards per game (previously 125) to join this list. Still a tricky feat but a little easier for sure.
There has never been a 2000 yard receiver in the NFL. Calvin Johnson came close in 2012 (1,964 yards) but fell 36 yards short of this accomplishment. However, we will surely see this record broken with the extra game, and many receivers break 2000 yards over the next ten seasons.
Randy Moss – 23 Touchdown receptions
In 2007 Randy Moss caught 23 touchdowns from Tom Brady over 16 games. This broke a record set by Jerry Rice in 1987, where he caught 22 touchdown passes in 12 games! With the 17th game, we may see the receiver’s top 20 touchdown receptions regularly.
In 2006, LaDainian Tomlinson set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns in a season with 28. With this 17 game season, it could be that this record will also be broken… possibly.
I can go on forever, but you get the point… the added game will lead to a drastic change in the NFL record book.
FANTASY IMPACT
At first glance, I thought that the 17th game would clean some things up for Fantasy Football players, but I don’t think that it will after looking deeper.
A big problem with fantasy football in previous seasons is when players sit out week 16, the typical Championship week for fantasy football leagues. I initially thought that leagues could continue to have their fantasy championships during week 16, and this would be early enough that players would not be sitting out. This could still happen, but the NFL made an error, at least an error in my eyes, as they added a bye week for WEEK 14! Having a Goodbye during week 14 means that fantasy leagues will most likely not want to have their playoffs begin in Week 14. Leagues will now be stuck using weeks 15, 16, and 17 as their playoff weeks, and the championship week will still suffer when players decide to sit out a week early.
Another problem would be “Schedule Balance.” If you play in a:
10 team league, you will play 5 teams twice and 4 teams once
12 team league, you will play 3 teams twice and 8 teams once
14 team league, you will play 1 team twice and 12 teams once
Personally, I like balance in fantasy football because if you play everyone once, you have nothing to complain about. However, when you play some teams twice, and you happen to play the best team twice, that can be a bit unfair, especially if you get knocked out of the playoffs because of it.
A possible solution:
This setup will create an opportunity for 15 team leagues to emerge. More money for your pot and a balanced schedule.
A 15 team league will allow you to play everyone once (fair) and start your league playoffs in week 15 (fair – since there are bye weeks in week 14). This of course, would reduce the number of available free agents available in your league, but it is an option to keep your league in balance.
I am surprised that the NFL does not embrace Fantasy Football more. I was a 49er fan growing up and was a diehard fan entering my first few years as a Fantasy Football Player. While I am still a 49er fan, I am also a fan of the players on my team (past and present), which has made me more of an NFL fan. The NFL is more popular than ever due to fantasy football, the best fantasy sport that there is, so the NFL putting bye weeks on Week 14 is a wrong decision, from my perspective. It will work out one way or another, but that is one change that could make a huge difference.
Commissioners: Best of luck to you as you make these decisions for your fantasy football league.
Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards are now available for purchase at commishkit.com.
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget to order your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards! They are now shipping.
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
You Don’t Win Your Fantasy Football League On Draft Day.
You Don’t Win Your Fantasy Football League On Draft Day.
You don’t win your fantasy football league on draft day, but you can lose it. I’ve seen guys go back to back with their first two picks and take wide receivers like Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens. It makes a splash at the draft party, but that team ends up sucking because they didn’t get any stud running backs.
I play in a standard snake draft with 14 teams, 16 round league. My draft strategy is to draft three running backs first and wait and take wide receivers starting in the 4th round. The only two times I went against my draft strategy were in 2013 when I took the Saints tight end, Jimmy Graham, with the 8th overall pick and ran away with my league. In 2019 I was hoping to repeat some magic when I took Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce with the number 9 overall pick. I didn’t make the playoffs. One of the worst teams I’ve ever drafted. Last year, a guy took tight end Travis Kelce with his first-round pick and tight end George Kittle with his second draft pick. He came in last because he didn’t get any quality running backs. At the end of every draft every year, every single person thinks that they stole the draft.
You can also lose it by drinking a few too many beers or flirting with the sticker girls at a live draft party. I’ve been guilty of both. Draft day is just the beginning of a long-ass season, but it feels short if you’re winning and glued to the Red Zone channel every week.
You can’t just coast it. You have to work the waiver wires and make some trades. And you have to be lucky when it comes to matchups and avoiding injuries. Last year our most points champ didn’t make the playoffs because of injuries to running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Chris Godwin. S*** happens. Best of luck to you in your league this year.
-The Commish Kit
Don’t forget to order your Fantasy Football Draft Boards from commishkit.com. They are now shipping.
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget to order your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards! They are now shipping.
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
Must Have Wide Receivers
Must Have Wide Receivers
The top three wide receivers off the draft board will more than likely be Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams. I start drafting wide receivers in the 4th round, and those guys are already gone by then. I like target monsters like Keenan Allen, Allen Hurns, and Terry McLaurin. If I’m lucky, one of these guys will be available by the time it’s my turn to pick. Last year I took Courtland Sutton as my first wide receiver of the Denver Broncos, and he gets hurt after one game. With my 5th pick, I had to choose between Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp. I had Thielen before, and I wanted him again because I had him two years prior, when he had one thousand yards and 9 touchdowns. I chose wisely, and he rewarded me with 925 receiving yards and 14 TDs.
Thielen will be on my list of must-have receivers. Some other guys I’m looking at are Diontae Johnson of the Steelers. He had 144 targets last year but only 88 receptions. Big Ben Roethlisberger is back, and they drafted running back Najee Harris. That offense should be clicking. I think he and Chase Claypool are going to have outstanding numbers.
I’ll redraft Courtland Sutton if he’s available. He’s been the number option before. And if the Broncos make that rumored trade for future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, he shoots up in the fantasy football draft rankings.
DJ Chark of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s supposed to be the number one wide receiver this year. He gets more targets over Laviska Shenault. Trevor Lawrence has to throw to somebody, and it’s not going to be Tebow.
Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. He gets reunited with his old LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. A.J. Green is now in Arizona, so somebody needs to get those 104 targets.
And finally, Michael Pittman Jr., I like this kid. He told Carson Wentz to go kick rocks. You’re not getting my number 11 jersey. Indy has a good O-line, good running backs, and this offense should be hitting on all cylinders with Carson Wentz at quarterback. I think Pittman and T.Y. Hilton will both have good years.
-The Commish Kit
Don’t forget to order your Fantasy Football Draft Boards from commishkit.com. They are now shipping.
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget to order your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards! They are now shipping.
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
Old School Rules For Fantasy Football
Old School Rules for Fantasy Football
I think I wrote this article in 2006. I’m dating myself. You can tell by the names of old players and references to tv shows. 2021 is my 21st year of playing fantasy football in the same league with most of the same guys, and we still follow these rules.
Some things in life are inevitable. You know, like, there’s never a cop around when you need one. Even though a beer at the ballpark is $8.50, you still buy one. David Stern already knows who the #1 pick is even before the draft lottery starts (see LeBron/Cleveland). Your smokin’ HOT girlfriend that likes to take you to the strip club turns into Bree Van Dekamp as soon as she digests your wedding cake. The same can be said for Fantasy Football. Every year some guy will show up on the draft day with a magazine that no one else has ever seen. A rookie that wasn’t a first-round pick makes a BIG impact. Mike Anderson in ’00, Clinton Portis in ’02, and Anquan Boldin in ’03. It doesn’t matter who’s running the rock in the Denver backfield; he’s going to get a “G.” And being The Commish is a thankless job. So we’ve come up with some rules to help you out on Fantasy Football draft day.
#1 – Throw A Fricking Draft Party!
If you guys do online drafting, then you’re a bunch of dorks. A draft party is the most fantastic excuse to get $#@% faced. The whole point of the draft party is to get away from the wife and kids and have some fun. Try to do it in Vegas when at all possible.
#2 – Buy a Draft Board!
Preferably a Commish Kit Draft Board. Nothing is worse than sitting around a table with a bunch of guys with their laptops geeking out while they take Rod Smith in the 6th round. If I wanted to use my computer, I would have stayed in my cubicle at work.
#3 – Have a Timer
Keep the first 2 rounds down to 2 minutes and 1 minute for the rest of the draft. It keeps guys on their toes.
#4 – Use a Hottie to put the draft labels on the board
This only works if you do rule #2. Preferably someone’s ex. And make sure she brings her new man to the draft. The guy in your league is going to be so pissed at you for bringing his ex that drafting a good team is the last thing on his mind. All is fair in love and war and Fantasy Football.
#5 – Have the Hottie wear a bikini (optional)
We here at Commish Kit spare no expense when it comes to our league draft. Give the Hottie a few bucks. Only the best for our boys.
#6 – Have some food
Either throw some meat on the grill or order some Mexican food. You want the food already prepared while the draft is going on, but nobody eats until after the draft. You want the aroma of the food to float around the draft room. The guys will be drinking and getting the munchies, so they will start drafting faster and making mistakes.
#7 – Keep the beer flowing!!!
Do you see where we are going with this? Lots of beer, Hot Chicks, delicious-smelling food. You are trying to distract the guys. We do this every year, and it works.
#8 – Make fun of other guys’ picks
Especially make fun of the newbies. Say something like, “Man, that guy wasn’t even in my top 20.” And never let anyone see you get pissed when the guy ahead of you takes your pick.
#9 – Tequilla Shots
This is for the jack-ass who picks someone who has already been selected. I swear to God, this is a true story. Back in ’01, during our draft, this guy takes WR David Terrell in the 6th round. On the way back in the 7th round, he stood up and said, “Out of Michigan, standing 6’3″ weighing 215 lbs. All American David Terrell.” The sad thing about this is that he hadn’t had any booze whatsoever. Oh, it’s true, it’s true.
#10 – Collect the League fees before the draft even starts
You know there’s always that one guy who’ll show up with no cash but will eat a ton of food and drink all of the beer. He’s probably the same guy who will quit after week 6 because his team sucks. Then you’re going to have one hell of a time trying to collect the league entrance fee from this guy at the end of the season. The best way to avoid all of this is to have the Hottie collect the cash at the door. No dinero? No entrance.
Other jack asses that will show up on your doorsteps:
*Multiple leagues player guy. He has Priest on his team but gets pissed when he scores 4 touchdowns because he’s going against him in his other league.
*The Cheat Sheet Guy. He shows up with no magazines. Only a highlighter and a stack of paper. He has no clue about what’s going on in training camp or who’s hurt.
*The ex-champ. He will never let you forget that he won the league 6 years ago but hasn’t made the playoffs since.
*The Newbie, aka “ESPN boy.” “What’s so hard about Fantasy Football? I watch ESPN all the time.”
*The mock draft expert. He’s read every Fantasy rag, so if your draft doesn’t go in the chronological order of what the experts magazine says, then you just F@#$ up the draft.
*I just stole the draft guy. “So you might as well give me the trophy now.” At the end of the draft, that’s all he says.
*The prematurequarterbackulation guy. He gets a top 3 pick and takes a QB. And the guy behind him gets a stud running back dropped in his lap.
BONUS !!!
*Draft Strategy*
#1 Load up on Running Backs
3 of your first 6 picks should be running backs. Grab back-ups who have a chance at starting. Like the back-ups in Kansas City. Stay away from the running back by committee teams, i.e., Minnesota, Denver, Chicago, and Miami if Ricky Williams comes back.
#2 Take a QB in the later rounds
You don’t need a Peyton or a Culpeps to win your league. A Tom Brady or a Trent Green will suffice.
#3 Don’t believe the hype
Do your homework and study. How many of you took Clinton Portis a couple of years ago thinking he would get an easy 1,500 and 15 TD’s behind Joe Gibb‘s counter trey?
#4 Grab players who have crappy defenses
Most high-powered offenses have crappy Defenses. Indianapolis, St. Louis, Green Bay, Denver, Oakland.
#5 Don’t follow the leader
Every year this happens in everyone’s draft. A tight end will get drafted, and you’ll see a run of about 5 more. The same thing will happen with defenses.
#6 Do I take the 7th best running back, or do I take the #1 receiver?
Select the highest-ranking player from another position because you’ll get the top value for your pick.
#7 Don’t draft a kicker until the last round
Vanderjagt and Akers are sexy picks, but they are no better than any other kickers. Last year the Top 10 kickers were only separated by 23 points. Go, roto kicker.
#8 Do roto defense. see rule #7
#9 Have fun
The ultimate point of Fantasy Football is to have fun. Not just on draft day, but all season long. I highly recommend that you get DirecTV with the NFL package. Invite the fellas over on Sunday and drink a few ice-cold ones.
#10 Don’t Drink & Drive
We here at Commish Kit use a lot of references to beer and getting liquored up. I’ve seen it in a lot of the fantasy mags too. If you guys are going to drink, please make sure you have some designated drivers or call a cab. (It’s 2021, so take an Uber or a Lyft) Or let your friends spend the night. Please be responsible and have a great Fantasy Football Season.
-The Commish Kit
Don’t forget to order your Fantasy Football Draft Boards from commishkit.com. They are now shipping.
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget to order your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards! They are now shipping.
Fantasy Football, ff player comparisons
Fantasy Football Cheaters
Fantasy Football Cheaters
You don’t tug on Superman’s cape. You don’t spit in the wind. You don’t pull the mask off the ol’ Lone Ranger, and you sure as hell don’t cheat in Fantasy Football.
You can cheat on your taxes and your wife, but cheating in fantasy football is un-American. So if you plan to win some “cash and prizes” in my league, I suggest you not do this Bull S***.
A while back, I talked to one of my loyal customers, John, and he told me how bothered he was that a couple of guys in his league had cheated. The guy in the 1st place had Tom Brady, and with one minute to go before the trade deadline, he ends up getting Jason Witten from the guy in dead last. And all it cost him was a running back on injured reserve. Of course, as the COMMISH, he was able to reverse the transaction but what was bothering him was that he spent a lot of time and money organizing a good league only to have a couple of jerks disrespect him. If John, like most COMMISHES, doesn’t organize the league, then it doesn’t get done.
John asked me for some advice, so I told him to get rid of those guys. They’re as useless as a stripper at a funeral. The COMMISH has to have some balls. He can’t be afraid to upset anybody, especially his friends. A couple of years ago, my girlfriend was on her way to winning her league when, days before the playoffs started, the last place guy decided to drop Edgerrin James, aka The Edge, and everyone on his roster since he was bored and out of contention. Edge gets picked up by a guy who also had Curtis Martin, and he ends up beating my girl in the championship game. She was upset that the COMMISH didn’t do anything about it. He said, “It’s just fantasy football.” She said, “Not when there’s money involved; it’s not A-hole.”
It goes both ways. I was once in a league where the COMMISH was e-mailing a couple of guys saying, let’s make this trade, and we’ll split the cash at the end of the year. That was my only year in that league. So here’s a list of my rules to stop cheating:
Rule #1.) Get good character, guys. Don’t let just anybody in your fantasy football league so that you can have a bigger cash prize. Find out if they only do online drafting or if they get together for a live draft in their other leagues. That’ll tell you a lot.
Rule #2.) COMMISH has to have some balls. Don’t be afraid to kick some guys out of the league, even if they are your friends.
Rule #3.) Have weekly prizes like the highest-scoring team gets X amount of money. The money keeps everyone interested and fielding the best squad they can.
Rule #4.) Have a consolation tournament for the non-playoff teams. The winner of our non-playoff tournament gets a guaranteed top 5 lottery pick.
Rule #5.) Lock all playoff teams’ rosters as soon as the season ends. That prevents the Edge fiasco. Baron Davis can’t join the Lakers for the playoffs when the Warriors‘ season ended just because he’s a free agent.
Rule #6.) Don’t go changing the rules as the season goes along. Whatever rules the commish makes in the rule book and on the draft day should stay in place all season long. So, for example, if only the top four teams are supposed to make the playoff, don’t ask the league to vote and let eight teams in instead.
Rule #7.) And this is the most important rule. Find another league that runs the same scoring system as yours. None of their players can be in your fantasy football league and vice versa. When a trade happens, give both rosters to another fantasy football league with the trade proposal. The different league has no clue who the owners are. It’s fair and impartial. This way, no one can say the COMMISH is biased. It’s worked out pretty well for us the last seven years.
Rule #8.) Set a deadline for your trades. Ours is on the week of Thanksgiving.
Rule #9.) Use a trade analyzer or hire a fantasy judge. I wrote this article in 2009, and we didn’t have these options back then. Now an app analyzer on your phone will let you know in seconds if a trade is fair or not.
These are just a few rules to help you out. If you have any other ideas, please e-mail us at customerhelp@commishkit.com
By Commish Kit
Here’s a suggestion from one of our customers:
Dear Eddie,
I have been a Fantasy Football commissioner for 12-years, and over that time, I have run into just about every rule violation, dispute, and or gripe that a commissioner could run into. As a result of this, I have continually refined my league, and its rules over the years until I have finally got it running like a well-oiled machine. As a result, all of my owners love my league, and my ownership turnover is very low. I liked all of your suggestions for preventing cheating in your fantasy league, and I have used many of them. I have a few other tips to add to your list that may help other commissioners keep their league under control while also keeping it fun for everybody. Please note that our league is a VERY “High Stakes” League with Entry Fees of $300 per team, transaction fees of $10.00 per player per transaction, and total end-of-year pots well over $3,000. Therefore, the following rules were needed in my fantasy league because a lot of money is at stake.
1. Establish a “Toilet Bowl” for teams that do not make the actual playoffs:
My league is a 10-team league where only six teams make the playoffs. In past years, the other 4-teams who did not make the playoffs stopped appearing on the website’s message board and stopped setting weekly lineups near the end of the year when they knew they would not make the playoffs. Some even dropped big players on their roster for others to pick up. To solve this problem, I started a “Toilet Bowl” in which the 4 non-playoff bound teams to compete over a 2 week period which starts at the same time as our regular 3 week playoff season. The prize for winning our Toilet Bowl is the first pick in the next year’s draft. This system prevents cheating, roster dumping, and disappearing owners by giving non-playoff teams something to compete for at the end of the year. Most importantly, it keeps all of the owners on our message board and keeps the trash-talking alive, which we feel is the most fun thing about fantasy football. It also solves the problem of being accused of “rigging” the first pick in the draft for the commissioner.
2. Division of Power/Responsibility
A. Assign an Assistant Commissioner:
After 12 years, I was starting to get frustrated by all of the work that was needed to run a league. I was also frustrated by owners who would call me 5-minutes before game time or at odd hours of the day and who would then complain that they couldn’t get a hold of me to make roster changes. I was also frustrated at being called to make roster changes while I was out of town on business or vacation. As a result, I came up with the idea of appointing an assistant commissioner who had all of the roster access and power to do transactions and make roster changes while I was out of town or when owners could not get a hold of me. This system worked so well, and my assistant commissioner was so good that we decided to make him the “full-time” transaction person as assistant commissioner and make me the “back up” for transactions. I still hold all of the commissioner’s power, but he does all of the transaction work, making my life easier and making my owners happier because he is more readily available for them. This system’s other unexpected positive bonus was that it provided a “checks and balances” function for our transaction system. The owners stopped complaining about bogus transactions and stopped accusing me of favoring one owner over another. There was now a second person involved in transaction approvals that they felt checked my decisions to ensure they were fair. Our transactions are reviewed much more closely now because the Assistant Commissioner only has one job: transactions. I know many guys don’t like to give up power, but trust me, you should try it. It works great, and everyone is much happier in our league now.
B. Assign a League Treasurer
The job I hated most as commissioner was that of collecting money. I didn’t have the aggressive personality to bug guys for their money. As a result, I was still trying to collect entry fees and transaction fees for a week after our Super Bowl. The guys were complaining that I didn’t make owners pay upfront. They were griping that I didn’t pay out on time, and they were fighting amongst themselves over who hadn’t paid yet. This also leads them to accuse me of playing favorites and making exceptions for certain owners. Then the solution to my problems hit me like a lightning bolt. I assigned a league treasurer. We have one guy in our league who is not afraid of confrontation and is not afraid to speak his mind. He is also a bit of a control freak, especially when it comes to money. He is the kind of guy who says the things that you wish you could say. So I decided to make him the treasurer and put him in charge of all collections and payouts. The collections and payouts are now all on time, and everyone is happy. The unexpected positive benefit of this system is that there is no way that my owners can accuse me of any type of misconduct with the money because there is now a “checks and balances” system in place between myself, my assistant commissioner, and my league treasurer. I never even touch the money anymore because it is all handled by my treasurer.
C. Establish Checks and Balances
With my new 3 branched system of Fantasy Football government in place, I then put together a system of checks and balances to utilize this system to best prevent cheating and to keep everyone happy and at peace with each other. So now, my league has the following governing rules that use the 3 branches of our league’s government:
- Any one of the three league officers can “veto” or block a transaction if he does not feel it is fair or proper.
- Any one of the three league officers can do a transaction vs. league funds reconciliation to ensure that all of the books are balanced and in order.
- All-League Rule changes and owner disputes are put to a democratic league owner vote. However, if a vote is tied, a 2nd vote is held only by the 3 governing league officers to break the tie. Since there are 3 officers, there is never a tie on this vote.
The system works much like our US government, and everyone is pleased in our league. It is successful, prevents cheating, and keeps everyone happy because no one person has too much power and is constantly being double-checked by another person. I hope it helps other commissioners.
-Jim Dallos
Wyandotte, MI
Don’t forget to order your Fantasy Football Draft Boards from commishkit.com. They are now shipping.
Come back next week for more 2021 Fantasy Football news and insights!
And, don’t forget your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards! They are now shipping.