RB DEBATE: DERRICK HENRY VS DALVIN COOK 2021

RB DEBATE: DERRICK HENRY VS DALVIN COOK

By John Falabella

Two of the marquee running backs entering the 2021 NFL season are Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans, coming off a 2000 yard rushing season, and Dalvin Cook from the Minnesota Vikings, who was not far behind Henry in terms of production in 2020. Many feel that Christian McCaffrey should be the first running back off the board in 2021, so the question is: Head to head… Which of these two running backs should be drafted next in 2021?

SCORING

Of course, in fantasy football, the main objective is to score points. What better way to do that than by drafting a player who scores a lot of touchdowns. Derrick Henry has scored double-digit touchdowns the past three seasons, including 17 in 2020, and has scored 35 over the past two. Dalvin Cook also scored 17 touchdowns in 2020 and has scored 30 times the past two years. In terms of scoring, these guys are neck in neck, but Derrick Henry wins by a nose in this category.

Advantage: Derrick Henry

CATCHING THE BALL

Many teams have running backs who they hand the ball to, and when they are down, that player comes out for a back that can catch the ball a little better. The Titans have been pretty good the past two years, so playing from behind has not been something that they have had to deal with much, but Derrick Henry has never caught more than 19 balls in a season (and only has 76 catches over his first five years in the pros). Dalvin Cook, on the other hand, has caught over 40 balls out of the backfield the past three seasons, and in 2019 he had over 50 catches for over 500 yards. Dalvin Cook is clearly the better pass catcher.

Advantage: Dalvin Cook

RUNNING THE BALL

Dalvin Cook has averaged 4.8 yards/carry for his career and was up to 5 yards per/carry in 2020. Great numbers….however, Derrick Henry has increased his average from 4.9 in 2018, to 5.1 in 2019 and up to 5.4 in 2020. They are both tough runners, but Derrick Henry has proven that he has only gotten stronger with age.

Advantage: Derrick Henry

TOUCHES

Touches also play a big part in who will be the better fantasy performer each season. Derrick Henry ran the ball a league-leading 378 times last season and has gone over 300 carries the past two seasons. The amazing part is that the Titans have evolved a bit over Coach Mike Vrabel’s three years in Tennessee. His first two seasons the Titans played a very slow pace totaling less than 900 total plays from scrimmage in 2018 and 2019. In 2020 they ramped it up and ran over 1000 plays. Derrick Henry reaped the benefits of this as he got extra carries, extra yardage and ran that all the way to his 2000 yard season.

Dalvin Cook also had over 300 carries (312 to be precise) in 2020, all while missing two games to injury. Had Cook played a full slate, he could have also reached 370 total touches last season, but missing games has been a big problem for Cook his entire professional career. So far, Cook has missed a total of 21 games in his four professional seasons. Derrick Henry has only missed two games his entire career. 

With that said, they are both going to touch the ball a ton in 2021. Now while the Titans have typically run the ball over 50% of the time during Mike Vrabel’s tenure as coach, they have to keep the young A.J. Brown happy, as well as veteran receiver newcomer Julio Jones. This could cause a shift in the Titan‘s play calling.

When the Vikings are good, they are going to run the ball a lot, and when the Vikings are bad (or average), they are going to throw it a ton. Last year, we saw the emergence of WR Justin Jefferson, and while the Vikings finished 7-9, they still ran the ball 48% of the time. I expect the Vikings to be better in 2021, but even if they are not, the catching ability of Cook keeps him on the field even when they are down.

Advantage: Dalvin Cook

THE X FACTOR

Derrick Henry ran for 2000 yards in 2020, so, of course, you should want to draft him… right? Well, maybe not. Prior to Henry, seven other running backs have rushed for 2000 yards in a season. So how did these running backs do the following season? 

OJ SIMPSON – BUFFALO BILLS

BARRY SANDERS – DETROIT LIONS

ERIC DICKERSON – LOS ANGELES RAMS

JAMAL LEWIS – BALTIMORE RAVENS

CHRIS JOHNSON – TENNESSEE TITANS

ADRIAN PETERSON – MINNESOTA VIKINGS

TERRELL DAVIS – DENVER BRONCOS

*All stats verified on Pro-Football Reference

(Terrell Davis’s career was essentially over after that 2000 yard season. Of course, it did not help that they played in back-to-back Super Bowls, and it also didn’t help that John Elway retired, but Terrell Davis was never the same after the 1998 season.)

Looking at the numbers, no running back, after posting a 2000 yard season, ever came close to matching their numbers from the previous season and all of them had extreme drop-offs. Even after removing Terrell Davis from the equation, the other six backs gained over 800 fewer yards the season after rushing for 2000. 

I am sure Derrick Henry will have a solid season in 2021, but after leading the NFL in rushing attempts and yardage over the past two seasons, the only place he can go is down.

Advantage: Dalvin Cook (Less wear and tear)

FINAL THOUGHTS

Derrick Henry has to deal with the ghosts of 2000 yard runners before him, opponents will be gearing up to stop him, and the addition of WR Julio Jones as well as a new offensive coordinator (Todd Downing – Arthur Smith moved on to the Atlanta Falcons) says that the Titans are going to be passing a bit more in 2021.

Dalvin Cook is younger, on the rise, will see tons of touches as the primary focus of the Vikings offense, and is on a team that has not changed much from last season. If I had to pick between these two players, I would choose Dalvin Cook with confidence.

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