Bruno Boys Fantasy Football
Commish Kit is your source for 2021 Fantasy Football updates and insights!
We are excited to announce that our fantasy football partner, Bruno Boys Fantasy Football, will be bringing the Commish Kit readers a weekly article throughout the year pertaining to fantasy football and the NFL. Bruno Boys has been providing up to the minute fantasy news and advice since 2005, and we have partnered with them since 2008. Now, let’s cut to the chase and start getting you ready to buy your 2021 fantasy football draft boards and put them to good use.
What has changed in Fantasy Football?
A lot has changed in the fantasy football landscape over the past five years. However, one thing that continues to remain the same is the rise of breakout players. Every season, a group of players exceed their average draft position (ADP) and become staples in fantasy championship rosters come December.
These are usually the guys that showed some value toward the end of the previous NFL season and benefited from an offseason role change or increase in opportunity. In short, their ceilings in terms of production are high. These smart, educated fantasy owners target these players in the middle rounds of their fantasy football drafts, while their competition targets declining players with bigger names.
While the start of the 2021 NFL season is still nine months away, now is the time to start trying to find which players will breakout this upcoming season.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
The rookie phenom was on the cusp of being locked in as a QB1 in the 12-team format before he tore his ACL in a Week 11 loss to the Washington Football team. Through 10 games, the gunslinger reminds me a lot of Brett Favre, who averaged 17.8 fantasy points per contest while throwing 13 touchdowns and rushing for 3 more. His 65.3% completion percentage was also impressive, and Burrow doesn’t back down from the competition.
Burrow is recovering well from ACL surgery and is expected to be ready to go in Week 1 for the Bengals. His injury will make fantasy owners overlook his hot start and will lead to incredible value in 12-team and 14-team leagues. Mark my words, Burrow is going to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback in all formats in 2021 and will outproduce more than a handful of quarterbacks drafted ahead of him.
Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Bills
Another rookie, Moss, became the Bills’ primary goal-line running back before an ankle injury on Super Wild Card weekend ended his season. That said, Moss is expected to be fully recovered by training camp, and it’s only a matter of time before he supplements Devin Singletary as the bell cow option in Buffalo.
Moss finished his rookie campaign with 576 total yards (481 rushing, 95 receiving) and 5 total touchdowns on 130 touches. He also saw an increased workload as the season went on, garnering 13 touches in each of Week’s 14-16.
The odds are Singletary and Moss will share the backfield to some degree to start next season, but it’s clear that the Bills favor Moss in the RBBC and look for the second-year bruiser to see an additional 5-6 touches per game. The expectation is that Moss will be drafted as a low-end RB2 on your fantasy football draft board, but he should exceed his ADP nonetheless.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Do you see the trend here? Jeudy is the third rookie on this list and is the one I am most intrigued by. A quick glance at his rookie numbers, and you’d want answers. Rightfully so. He finished with just 52 receptions and a pedestrian 856 receiving yards in 16 games, but that isn’t because of Jeudy. The Broncos struggled at the quarterback position throughout the year, and the No. 1 option Drew Lock proved to be inaccurate most weeks, as evident by Jeudy’s 46% catch rate on targeted throws.
In comparison, Davante Adams had a 77% catch rate, Tyreek Hill’s was 64%, and Stefon Diggs’s was 77%. If you were to take Jeudy’s yard per catch (YPC) average of an impressive 16.5 yards per catch and bump his catch rate up to even 65%, the rookie would have had the following stats based on his targets: 73 receptions for 1,205 receiving yards. Those stats would have made him 2nd among rookies in receiving yards and 10th overall in the NFL.
As you can see, it takes an efficient quarterback to truly get the value out of the receiver, but I fully expect Lock to be more accurate in 2021 and for Jeudy to finish the season as a WR2 option, which is up about 20 spots from where he finished last year.
Check back every week for a fresh installment of Fantasy Football news and insights from the Bruno Boys!
And, don’t forget your 2021 Commish Kit Fantasy Football Draft Boards are Coming Soon!
