THE GREAT DEBATE: WHO WILL BE THE TOP FANTASY WR IN 2020?

Who is the best fantasy wide receiver pick: Michael Thomas or Davante Adams?

By: John Falabella

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As the regular season approaches this will be my final article of the 2020 preseason. Thus far we have debated some of the top players at each position. Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson? Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley? George Kittle or Travis Kelce? Tom Brady vs Cam Newton? This final article will cover two of the top two ranked WR’s headed into the 2020 season: Michael Thomas, of the New Orleans Saints, and Davante Adams, of the Green Bay Packers. Both of these guys are exceptional receivers but who is the better wide receiver option entering this season?

MICHAEL THOMAS (New Orleans Saints – WR – #13)

Michael Thomas is entering his 5th season with the New Orleans Saints. He was selected 47th overall in the 2016 NFL draft. Over his first five years he has caught 470 passes for 5512 yards and 32 TDs. He has averaged over 87 yards per game for his career.

DAVANTE ADAMS (Green Bay Packers – WR – #17)

Davante Adams is entering his 7th season with the Green Bay Packers. He was selected 53rd overall in the 2014 NFL draft. He was a third option his first two seasons in Green Bay, playing behind Jordy Nelson (in his prime) and Randall Cobb. It was really in year three that Adams took over as the #1 WR for the Packers and the rest is history. For his career he has caught 431 passes for 5194 yards and 44 TDs.

Let’s take a look at how each of these guys stack up in each category:

OPPORTUNITY

Both of these players are the number one targets for their (future) Hall of Fame Quarterbacks. Davante Adams has had at least 117 targets in each of the last four seasons. In his best year in Green Bay he caught 111 passes on 169 targets (2018). He was on pace for the same type of numbers last year but he missed four games and fell short, but the fact remains, that the potential remains for that kind of workload in 2020.

Michael Thomas, in his four years as a professional, has never seen fewer than 121 targets and has never fallen short of 100 catches. In fact, each season Thomas has played the number of catches that he has had has gotten higher. In 2018 Thomas led the NFL with 125 catches and last year he set an NFL record by making 149 catches on 185 targets.

Advantage: Michael Thomas

YARDAGE

During Davante Adams‘ best season (2018) he was able to gain 1386 yards and last year was on pace to match that number while averaging 83.1 yards/game but the truth is, Adams has only had one 1,000 yard season in his six year career (finished with 997 yards twice).

As I mentioned, the numbers that Michael Thomas has put up have gotten better each season and the yardage numbers are no different. Thomas had 1137 yards… his rookie season and he has continued to get better and better. Last season he led the NFL with 1725 yards, with an average of 107.8 yards/game.

Advantage: Michael Thomas

SCORING

Over Michael Thomas’s four year career he has finished with 9 TD receptions three times, and has never reached double digits. That is unlikely to change as the Saints like to spread the ball around. In 2019 the Saints had six different players (including Thomas) score at least 5 TDs. In 2018, four players scored 5 or more TDs but the running backs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, rushed for 20 TDs combined.

What Davante Adams loses in catches and yardage he gains with his red zone connection with Aaron Rodgers. In the four years that Adams has been the #1 WR in Green Bay he has exceeded 10 TDs three times with a high of 13 in 2018. In 2019 he was on pace for 7 TDs but I would look for that number to increase in 2020 as Aaron Jones had 16 rushing TDs last year for the Packers and teams will stack the line to stop him in 2020.

Advantage: Davante Adams

QUARTERBACK(S)

A big part of the potential of a WR is the abilities of the Quarterback throwing him the ball. Both of these players have future Hall of Fame Quarterbacks in pass first offenses and both players are the #1 targets for those QBs.

Of course, Adams will be catching passes from one of the best in the game, Aaron Rodgers, who isn’t getting any younger (age 36). Rodgers normally plays all 16 games, but twice in the past seven years Rodgers has missed about half the season with injuries so it is possible that it could happen again. Should Rodgers go down it would be, rookie, Jordan Love throwing the passes. Jordan Love did throw 20 TD passes his last year in college but also threw 17 interceptions. The last time Rodgers was out and Adams had to catch passes from a young QB he struggled.

Thomas will be targeted plenty by Drew Brees, but he is older than Rodgers (age 41). Should Drew Brees get injured he would be replaced by former #1 overall pick, Jameis Winston. Now Winston has a track record for throwing interceptions himself (30 last season) but he will be schooled in New Orleans which will help his development. Brees actually missed 6 games last season, so there is a chance that could occur again. The numbers that Michael Thomas put up last season with QB Teddy Bridgewater were almost identical to the numbers he had with Brees.

Advantage: Michael Thomas

THE OTHER GUYS

New Orleans is loaded with talent, not just at QB. They have Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith and Jared Cook that will take the field with Thomas. Now while Michael Thomas is worthy of a double team that will be very hard to do with all these other capable options.

Green Bay does have a great system but they do not have nearly as much surrounding Adams as the Saints do with Thomas. Green Bay has a solid running game but they do not have a proven #2 or #3 WR and will be going with a no-name TE now that Jimmy Graham has left town. Without a clear cut second option Davante Adams will most likely face double teams each game.

Advantage: Michael Thomas

DURABILITY

This might be the most important point. I mentioned that Adams has only had one 1000 yard receiving season, a big reason for that is that he has not played a full 16 game season since 2016 and has missed 10 games over his six year career. Adams is a great talent but if he is not on the field he can’t help the Packers and, most of all, he can’t help you. One year, due to the double teams, he took a big hit and had a major concussion…so the injuries are not entirely his fault but the fact that he garners so much attention he will be hit hard on almost every play.

Michael Thomas has only missed one game in his entire career and that was in his rookie season. With all the talent surrounding him and the lack of double teams he works with more space and he will not take as many big hits because of it.

Advantage: Michael Thomas

FINAL DECISION

If Davante Adams plays 16 games with Aaron Rodgers he will no doubt put up Michael Thomas like numbers but…

Michael Thomas will put up BIG numbers no matter who is under center in New Orleans and should be the first WR picked in 2020 fantasy football drafts.

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THE GREAT DEBATE: WHO WILL BE THE TOP FANTASY QB IN 2020

Who is the best fantasy quarterback pick: Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson?

By: John Falabella

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As the NFL season is set to kick off a large question looms… Who will be the highest scoring fantasy player for the 2020 season? Over the past decade, since the implementation of the “Running Back by committee”, the highest scoring player each season has been a QB. Last season 11 of the 12 top scoring players were QBs (the exception – Christian McCaffrey #2 in points overall) but who are the top two candidates to be the highest scoring player this season?

The conversation must start with the highest scoring player from the 2019 season and last year’s NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson. This guy has electrified the NFL over the past two seasons and averaged over 27 points/game in 2019 in his first full year as a starter.

In 2018 Jackson was inserted into the starting lineup around midseason and he instantly transformed the Ravens into a Super Bowl contender. Jackson passes the eye test as a passer and as a runner. His passing stats (3127 yards – 36 TDs – 6 INTs) alone would have ranked him as the #12 QB last season and his rushing numbers (1206 yards and 7 TDs) would have ranked him as the #19 RB. Drafting Lamar Jackson is like drafting two players in one. He will once again be dynamic in 2020.

The second candidate would have to be the highest scoring player from two years ago and the 2018 NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes. In 2018 Mahomes averaged over 26 points/game while throwing 50 Touchdown passes in his first year as a starter.

Mahomes started off 2019 very strong, averaging 23 points/game over his first six, but a knee injury slowed him a bit when he returned. He still put up a respectable 20 points/week over the final 7 games but Andy Reid seemed to be a bit more cautious with him. In the playoffs he was let loose again and ended up leading the Chiefs to a come from behind victory in the Super Bowl and took home the MVP trophy.

Who will be the top fantasy QB in 2020?

Looking down the road some question marks appear for the Chiefs. After winning the Super Bowl in 2019, the Chiefs will be without RBs Damian Williams (Covid-19 Opt-out) and LeSean McCoy (Tampa Bay) but they will be going with first round rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their primary running back. While he is a very talented back, young players tend to make mistakes and without a proven veteran backup they will be forced to work around them. Also, the Chiefs will be without two key offensive linemen which may lead them to become a little more conservative with the play calling as well as with Mahomes. On the other hand, they will still have the services of two of the best offensive weapons in the NFL: WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce.

Jackson and the Ravens have the majority of their offense returning and still have veteran RB Mark Ingram taking the handoffs in the backfield. They will also use 2nd round rookie RB, J.K. Dobbins, making the backfield a little more electrifying. Jackson also had a great rapport with TE Mark Andrews and young WR Marquise Brown but the focal point of this team will be Jackson, who made the Ravens special the moment he took the field for the first time.

FINAL DECISION – MAHOMES vs JACKSON WHO IS THE BEST FANTASY QUARTERBACK PICK

If you were to ask me who the better QB is I would say Patrick Mahomes, by far. If you were asking me who is the better athlete, I would go with Lamar Jackson. If you asked me who was the better football player, that would be tough to answer but, in the short term, I would say Jackson. If you asked me which of these two players will have the better career, I would say Mahomes since he is built for the long haul while Jackson plays with reckless abandon but finally, if you asked me who will have the better season in 2020 I would go with Lamar Jackson.

Any player that can throw for over 3000 yards while throwing 30 touchdowns is already worthy of a starting spot on your team but when that very same player can rush for an average of 80 yards/game and 1200 yards for the season plus 7 touchdowns how could you turn it down?

I think both Jackson and Mahomes are first round picks but Lamar Jackson should be the first quarterback off the board in 2020 Fantasy Football drafts!

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THE GREAT DEBATE: WHO IS THE BEST FANTASY TE IN 2020 – TRAVIS KELCE OR GEORGE KITTLE?

By: John Falabella

Want to win your fantasy league? Grab one the best TE’s in the draft. This will give you a point surplus and give you an advantage in most of your games since the number of elite TE’s are so few… the real question is who is the best option for 2020?

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Best 2020 Tight Ends – Travis Kelce vs George Kittle

One of the obvious candidates would be the TE that has scored more fantasy points than any other tight end over the past four years, Travis Kelce. Kelce has been ranked #1 three out of the last four seasons in Andy Reid’s high powered offense with the Kansas City Chiefs. Kelce has been a model of consistency throughout his career, only missing one game over his first six seasons.

Another candidate for the best TE in 2020 is George Kittle, the San Francisco 49ers TE, who has been on the coattails of Travis Kelce over the past two seasons. Kittle was drafted in the 5th round of the 2017 NFL draft and, after opening some eyes his rookie season, ascended all the way to the number two ranked tight end in 2018. He followed up that great 2018 season with another fine season in 2019. He finished the year as the #3 overall TE but he missed two games and if you add his projected stats for the games he missed into his season total he would have finished neck and neck with Kelce.

KELCE – 97 catches – 1229 yards (76.8 yards/game) – 5 TD 

FANTASY POINTS – 152.9 (Standard)

KITTLE* – 97 catches – 1203 Y (75.2 yards/game) – 5 TD

FANTASY POINTS – 150.3

* Stats are for 14 games that Kittle played plus season averages to compensate for the two games that he missed.

Why George Kittle will be #1 in 2020

George Kittle plays for Kyle Shanahan and he has loved to incorporate his TE into his passing offense wherever he has been. If you go back and look at the stats for the teams that he has coached (as an offensive coordinator) the primary TE has always put up excellent numbers.

When Shanahan was the Offensive coordinator in Houston (2008-2009) he had:

2008 – Owen Daniels – 70 catches – 862 yards – 2 TDs.

He then moved on to Washington where he had:

2010 – Chris Cooley – 77 catches – 849 yards – 3 TDs

2011 – Fred Davis – 59 catches – 796 yards – 3 TDs

2013 – Jordan Reed – 45 catches – 499 yards – 3 TDs (9 games)

Even in Atlanta one year he had:

2015 – Jacob Tamme – 59 catches – 657 yards 

When it comes to George Kittle, he has been the number one receiver in San Francisco for the past two seasons and has a great rapport with Coach Shanahan as well as QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Kittle might also be more athletic and tougher than the other guys listed above which is why he will continue to out produce the numbers put up by those guys.  Drafting Kittle means drafting about 1150 yards and 5 TDs from your TE.

Why Travis Kelce is #1 TE in 2020

Travis Kelce, who was drafted by the Chiefs in 2013, has only played for one coach, Andy Reid, and he knows the system well. One of the best parts about the Chiefs is that they are able to space the field with talented players and speed which opens up the middle for the tight end. Kelce has been able to capitalize on this by leading the Chiefs in catches in five out of the last six seasons. Kelce can put up big numbers with any QB but his production has gone way up the past two seasons with QB Patrick Mahomes under center.

Averages his first 4 years (Alex Smith as QB)

77 Catches – 975 yards – 6 TDs

Averages his last 2 seasons (Patrick Mahomes as QB)

100 Catches – 1283 yards – 7 TDs*

* Numbers dipped a bit in 2019 as Patrick Mahomes missed two games with a knee injury.

I would expect another season of 1200 yards and 7 TDs from Travis Kelce in 2020.

So who is the best TE option for 2020?

I like George Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers but I expect them to be a 13 win team again in 2020 which means that they will be running the ball a ton. Last season, the 49ers dominated the league with a power running game and in many of those games they ran the ball to control the clock late to secure victories. The 49ers ended up passing the ball just 49% of the time (479 pass attempts) in 2019 and although George Kittle will be the #1 receiver in San Francisco his opportunities will be limited by the lack of passing late in games.

While the 49ers were winning with the running game, the Chiefs were bringing home victories through the air. The Chiefs have won 12 games a year in each of the past two seasons and they have done it passing the ball 60% of the time (576 pass attempts in 2019). Most teams like to run out the clock to win games, but that has never been Andy Reid’s style.

These extra opportunities is what sets Travis Kelce apart and why he should be the #1 TE off the board in 2020.

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THE GREAT DEBATE: WHO IS THE TOP FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACK IN 2020?

CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY vs SAQUON BARKLEY

By: John Falabella

If we traveled back in time to last year before the draft Saquon Barkley was on top of most fantasy football experts lists as the number one overall pick in fantasy football. Christian McCaffrey came in between three and four. One year later most rankings have flipped flopped these two guys, McCaffrey now being the top dog, but it’s not about who has the higher ranking it’s about who will have the better numbers at the end of the 2020 fantasy season.

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Is Saquon Barkley the best Fantasy Football RB?

Saquon Barkley will be entering his third year in New York after being the 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. He was drafted to be the workhorse back for the Giants and he compiled over 2000 total yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns his rookie year.

His second year did not go as smoothly as he was sidelined for a few weeks with a high ankle sprain and came back and played through the injury before he was fully healed. This of course impacted his statistics but he still had a decent year with 1,441 total yards and 8 touchdowns. This made him the 9th best RB and 11th best position player (depending on your scoring system) in terms of fantasy points in 2019 but the chances are that you drafted him to be the best and he fell short.

Is Christian McCaffrey the best Fantasy Football RB?

Christian McCaffrey is entering his fourth season in Carolina after being drafted with the number eight overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. McCaffrey was eased into playing time with the Panthers during his rookie season as they still had Jonathan Stewart dominating the early down work. My point is that he did not take a huge beating his rookie season.

In year two McCaffrey was given the keys to the car and he ran with it. He averaged just over 20 touches/game that season and his lowest total was 16 (on the last game of the year) while turning himself into a top three back by accumulating 1,965 total yards and 13 TDs.

McCaffrey took it to a whole new level in 2019 by getting over 400 touches (only has happened 44 times in NFL history) and went for over 1000 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving in the same season! That has only been done three times (Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig were the others). Christian McCaffrey was by far the highest scoring fantasy non-QB in 2019.

I anticipate both of these backs having excellent seasons in 2020 but they will both be dealing with major changes around them.

The situation in New York

This offseason the New York Giants hired Joe Judge, who was primarily a special teams coach for the New England Patriots but coached the WR’s in 2019. He was brought to New York to bring a new dynamic in the locker room, something they have not had since the early years of Tom Coughlin. Since Judge has never been an offensive coordinator he will be relying on former Dallas Cowboys head coach, Jason Garrett, to run the offense and call the plays. This bodes well for Barkley as I am sure he will be used as Ezekiel Elliott was used in Dallas and that would work well with young Daniel Jones under center since a strong running game is a young QB’s best friend.

The situation in Carolina

Matt Rhule was hired to replace Ron Rivera in Carolina. Rhule comes from the College ranks as he was the head coach at the University of Baylor for the past three seasons. Over his 20 plus years of football coaching experience only one of those years was in the NFL (2012 Offensive Line Coach with New York Giants). Rhule has coached on the offensive and defensive side of the ball during his time in college but he will trust Joe Brady with the playing calling duties in his first season. Joe Brady was the passing game coordinator for the LSU Tigers last season but the year before that he was with Sean Payton in New Orleans. Another tie to the New Orleans Saints is Teddy Bridgewater, who was signed as a free agent to be the QB for Carolina this season and worked with Brady in New Orleans during the 2018 season.

Who should be the #1 RB off the board in 2020 Fantasy Football drafts?

Saquon Barkley will have to deal with a first time head coach who has never been a coordinator, QB Daniel Jones who is still acclimating himself to life in the NFL, probably two new offensive linemen and a new offensive Coordinator in 2020. All of that plus he will be playing for a team that went 4-12 last season and still has many problems to solve.

If I had the #1 pick in my Fantasy Football draft I would pick Christian McCaffrey. Personally, when I am looking for a “can’t miss player” I want stability when it comes to the majority of what is going on with that players team. The fact that QB Teddy Bridgewater and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady have history together with the New Orleans Saints carries a lot of weight. That will create stability with the rest of the offense.

I feel that Christian McCaffrey is in a much better situation in Carolina and that is why he would be my choice as the #1 overall pick in 2020!

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THE GREAT DEBATE: Tom Brady vs Cam Newton – Who’s the better Fantasy Football QB pick?

By: John Falabella

Question: Who will have a better NFL season in 2020…Tom Brady or Cam Newton?

This is a question that will resurface many times before the 2020 Fantasy Football season begins. Which QB will have the better season in 2020? Well, as we know football is the ultimate team sport so a big part of your success is associated with the players that are around you.

Tom Brady, over the past three seasons, has clearly shown declining numbers. His touchdown passes over that time span have gone from 32 to 29 to 24 but if you also look at the talent that has surrounded him it has also gotten worse each season. In 2019 the star quarterback did not have “Gronk” and over the past two fantasy football seasons he also lost reliable WR’s Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan. Then in the middle of last fantasy football season he lost Josh Gordon and even though they picked up Mohamed Sanu, chemistry is key and it just wasn’t there at that time. Even in the running game, the Patriots had fewer options than in years past.

Cam Newton, a big name quarterback with star appeal, also known as Superman to many, only played in two games last year. It was a foot injury that kept him out and even though Cam Newton is a great football player the thing that makes him special is his running ability. In his best years with the Panthers he was able to run for close to 40 yards per game, will he be able to do that in his present state for this year’s fantasy football season?

Why will Tom Brady flourish in Tampa Bay?

I feel that even though quarterback Tom Brady is getting older and even though his skill set may be declining (slightly) he will be going into a great situation in Tampa Bay. He will be playing for a great coach, Bruce Arians, who is a genius in the passing game. I am sure Tom Brady will bring his bag of tricks from New England as well. Next, Tom Brady will be throwing to young athletic receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both are coming off 1,000 yard seasons and both are able to separate from the defense. They are any quarterback’s dream, especially an older one. Brady will also have one of his favorite targets in Rob Gronkowski back with him in Tampa Bay. “Gronk” will be fresh and ready to have some fun with his old buddy in Florida. He will also have the services of OJ Howard and Cameron Brate, two very capable TE’s. The weapons Brady was lacking in New England will be present in Tampa Bay.

Why Tom Brady may have problems?

The offensive line and running game in Tampa Bay are suspect. If the offensive line can’t protect Brady (Jameis Winston was sacked 47 times last season) and can’t open up holes for running back Ronald Jones, then this conversation will be a short one. Winston threw 30 interceptions last season partially because he was on the verge of being sacked on every possession. Tom Brady will still need time in the pocket to work his magic.

Why will Cam Newton flourish with the Patriots?

Cam Newton is a tremendous athlete, assuming that his foot is healthy and that he is the Cam Newton of old, the Patriots will find a way to win. History has shown that regardless of who they have behind center that is true. Tom Brady didn’t miss many games in his career but since 2008, in the 19 games that Tom Brady did not play, the team went 13-6.  In 2008 Tom Brady was injured in the first game of the season. At that point New England inserted 7th round draft pick, Matt Cassel, and the team still went on to win 11 games that season. In 2016, while being suspended for 4 games, Tom Brady was replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett and they went 3-1 in those four games (a pace of 12-4). The Patriots will model their team off of Cam Newton’s strengths and they will win.

Why might Cam Newton struggle?

The Patriots love to pass the ball. Over the past four seasons they have thrown the ball 56% of the time which amounts to an average of 576 pass attempts per season. Cam Newton has only attempted over 500 passes twice in a season during his career and the last time he only completed 53% of those passes. Over the past four seasons Tom Brady completed passes at a 65% clip.

So now it comes back to the question of the weapons surrounding Cam in New England. Do you think Tom Brady would have left a winning situation willingly if he didn’t see the writing on the wall? The Patriots have fewer weapons than ever and if you look at the Patriots depth chart they have Matt LaCosse currently listed as the #1 TE and Devin Asiasi, the 3rd round rookie, as the backup. We all know that Cam loved to throw to TE Greg Olsen in Carolina, will these players give him the same safety blanket that he had with the Panthers? I am not so sure. I still think the Patriots will still be a winning team in 2020 but they will look very different than the Patriots we all remember.

Who will have the better fantasy football season?

I think that Tom Brady will fit in with the Buccaneers seamlessly while the Patriots will have to adjust to accommodate Cam Newton. I feel that the offensive line in Tampa Bay will be inspired to play and protect Brady because they know their window of opportunity to win a Super Bowl will be short (2-3 years).

There is no doubt in my mind that Tom Brady will be one of the top quarterbacks in football and will have a better fantasy football season than Cam Newton in 2020.

Get ready to throw your fantasy football league draft party!

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Who’s the best fantasy football quarterback? Mahomes vs. Jackson coming soon.